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Theodore R. Holford



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    OA09 - Prevention and Cessation (ID 909)

    • Event: WCLC 2018
    • Type: Oral Abstract Session
    • Track: Prevention and Tobacco Control
    • Presentations: 1
    • Moderators:
    • Coordinates: 9/24/2018, 15:15 - 16:45, Room 205 BD
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      OA09.05 - Potential Reduction in Lung Cancer Mortality in the US from 2015-2065: A Comparative Modeling Approach (ID 11662)

      16:00 - 16:10  |  Author(s): Theodore R. Holford

      • Abstract
      • Presentation

      Background

      Tobacco control efforts implemented since the 1960s in the US have led to considerable reductions in smoking and smoking-related diseases including lung cancer. It is, however, unclear to what extent tobacco use and lung cancer mortality will be further reduced during the next half century due to control efforts that have already been implemented until 2015. To address this question, we developed simulation models that explicitly relate smoking temporal patterns to future lung cancer rates.

      a9ded1e5ce5d75814730bb4caaf49419 Method

      Four independent lung cancer natural history models were developed using US smoking (1964-2015) and lung cancer mortality (1969-2010) data. Each model projected lung cancer mortality by smoking status (ages 30-84) from 2015 to 2065 under a status quo scenario, in which current smoking patterns are assumed to continue into the future. Sensitivity analyses were conducted comparing optimistic and pessimistic assumptions relative to the status quo.

      4c3880bb027f159e801041b1021e88e8 Result

      Models validated well to observed lung cancer mortality. Under the status quo scenario, age-adjusted lung cancer mortality is projected to drop 79% from 2015 to 2065. Concomitantly, the annual number of lung cancer deaths is projected to decrease from 135,000 to 50,000 (63% reduction). Despite these decreases, 4.4 millions deaths from lung cancer are projected to occur in the US from 2015-2065.

      8eea62084ca7e541d918e823422bd82e Conclusion

      Tobacco control efforts since the 1960’s will continue to lead to reductions in lung cancer rates well into the next half century. Nonetheless, additional prevention efforts are required to sustain and expand these gains, and further reduce the lung cancer burden in the US.

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      Information from this presentation has been removed upon request of the author.

      Information from this presentation has been removed upon request of the author.