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Y. Wang



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    MA 18 - Global Tobacco Control and Epidemiology II (ID 676)

    • Event: WCLC 2017
    • Type: Mini Oral
    • Track: Epidemiology/Primary Prevention/Tobacco Control and Cessation
    • Presentations: 1
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      MA 18.06 - Clinical Prognostic Model for Older Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (ID 8113)

      15:45 - 17:30  |  Author(s): Y. Wang

      • Abstract
      • Presentation
      • Slides

      Background:
      The median age at diagnosis of lung cancer is 70 years. Older patients are often not prescribed standard therapy. Due to multiple competing causes of death, older patients often do not demonstrate a benefit in overall survival (OS). It is important to know which older patients would actually be candidates for aggressive therapy based on their prognosis, and to develop a simple prognostic model that can help clinicians determine individual prognosis.

      Method:
      Data on patients enrolled on 38 NCI-sponsored cooperative group clinical trials of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from 1991 to 2011 were analyzed. Multivariable Cox PH model was built with a stepwise procedure with all potential predictors: age, sex, race, ethnicity (Hispanic or non-Hispanic), performance status, initial stage, BMI, and weight loss in the past 3/6 months. We derived a prognostic score using the estimated Cox PH regression coefficient in the training set. To assess the performance of our prognostic model, we calculated the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 1- and 2-year survival in the testing set.

      Result:
      The final analysis included 1454 NSCLC patients ≥70 years of age. These patients were randomly divided into a training set (n=962) and a testing set (n=492). The prognostic risk score was calculated as: 3 (if male) + 3 (if PS=1) + 8 (if PS=2) + 11 (if initial stage=IV) + 4 (if weight loss). Patients were classified into three prognostic groups by tertiles: good (0-6), intermediate (7-14) and poor (≥15). The median OS in the three groups in the testing set were: 14.6 months (95% CI, 12.2-18.5); 12.2 months (95% CI, 10.7-14.4) and 7.0 months (95% CI, 5.6-8.9), respectively. Despite its simplicity, the present model had area under the 1-year and 2-year ROCs (0.63 and 0.68, respectively) that were higher than existing models.

      Conclusion:
      Male gender, poor performance status, distant metastases and weight loss immediately prior to diagnosis predict for poor OS in older patients with advanced NSCLC. This study proposes a simple prognostic model for older adults with advanced NSCLC based on basic clinical characteristics that are part of the routine evaluation process for every patient with NSCLC.

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