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OA17 - Aspects of Health Policies and Public Health (ID 397)
- Event: WCLC 2016
- Type: Oral Session
- Track: Regional Aspects/Health Policy/Public Health
- Presentations: 1
OA17.02 - Potential Health and Economic Consequences of Organized vs Opportunistic Lung Cancer Screening in Canada (ID 6033)
16:00 - 17:30 | Author(s): J. Goffin
Annual LDCT screening for individuals 55-74 yrs with >30 pack-year smoking history is supported by evidence from the NLST but has led to questions of implementation. Compared to organized screening (ORG), opportunistic screening (OPP) may utilize broader entry criteria and not include smoking cessation.
Health and economic impacts of ORG using NLST entry criteria were modelled using population microsimulation (OncSim – formerly Canadian Risk Management Model v 2.3) and compared to OPP scenarios. We modeled ORG at a participation rate of 30 and 60%, with and without smoking cessation, compared to various plausible OPP scenarios: younger individuals (40-74 yrs); lesser smoking histories (10 or 20 pack-yrs). Outcomes projected to 20 years included incidence, mortality, number of scans, invasive diagnostics for false positives, and screening and treatment costs. A lifetime horizon and 3% discounting were used to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) from a health system perspective. All costs are in 2016 CAD.
A large number of outputs can be presented. At a participation rate of 30%, average annual incremental incident cases of lung cancer with OPP for 40-74 yr-olds with 10 pack-yr histories are higher by 254 over ORG without cessation, and there would be an average 135 fewer deaths annually. However, the annual number of CT scans would increase by 433,000 on average and diagnostic tests for false positive results would increase by 1540. Average annual costs would increase by $141 M compared with ORG without cessation, resulting in an ICER of $133,000/QALY. OPP with 40-74 yr-olds having 20 and 30 pk-yr histories result in $92,147 and 74,978/QALY respectively. In all cases of OPP compared to ORG with cessation there are net losses of QALY. Notably, ORG with smoking cessation compared to ORG without yields an ICER of $2800/QALY.
OPP screening results in more incident cases and fewer deaths but more cost from over-diagnosis and false positives. In Canada, an annual screening program with strict adherence to NLST entry criteria could be highly cost-effective. Jurisdictions will have to weigh the benefits and risks of LDCT scanning beyond the currently available evidence.
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