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MINI 23 - Lung Cancer Risk: Genetic Susceptibility and Airway Biology (ID 135)
- Event: WCLC 2015
- Type: Mini Oral
- Track: Screening and Early Detection
- Presentations: 1
MINI23.01 - Risk of Lung Cancer in Female Non-Smokers Requires Extended Screening Guidelines (ID 2137)
16:45 - 18:15 | Author(s): K.W. Armstrong
The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) established a 20% reduction in lung cancer-specific mortality with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in 30 pack year smokers. However, approximately 25% of all lung cancers occur in non-smokers, and screening guidelines are needed for this large cohort. Pre-test probability of lung cancer can be estimated in this group using a validated risk prediction model [Liverpool Lung Project, LLP]. The LLP compares risk in 579 lung cancer cases with 1157 age and sex matched controls.
We used the LLP model to illustrate risk profiles for non-smoking females compared to 30 pack year smokers [the NLST target population]. This tool revealed the individual and cumulative effect of risk factors in non-smoking females. The LLP estimates the probability of developing lung cancer within 5 years based on age, sex, smoking history, family history of lung cancer, infectious and occupational exposures, and prior diagnosis of a malignant tumor other than lung cancer. This tool has been validated in a Caucasian population including never and ever smokers up to 79 years of age (cross validation of tool: AUC=0.70).
We generated risk profiles for female non-smokers between 65-79 years old and no other co-morbidity, and compared the risk against those for women in the same age bracket with 30-pack year smoking history or additional non-tobacco risk factors (i.e. previous pneumonia, asbestos exposure, having a relative with lung cancer < 60years, and the combination of all factors listed). Significant risk with increasing age was predicted by the LLP model for women with 30 pack year smoking history (peak risk at age 75 years 2.2% over next 5 years). This is less than the risk of 6.7% over the next 5 years (at age 75 years) for non-smoking women with the combination of all mentioned risk factors. Relative risk of lung cancer of non-smoking women with all noted risk factors was 3.5 compared to women with no other risk factors other than 30 pack-years smoking history. Relative risk of smoking women compared to non-smoking without other risk factors was 4, while relative risk of non-smoking women with cumulative risk factors was 14 compared to non-smoking women with no other risk factors. Figure 1
Therefore, the development of lung cancer risk prediction models is a key advance in the assessment of patients at risk. Individual risk assessment can be judged using the LLP model and could encourage refinement of screening recommendations.
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