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MINI 19 - Surgical Topics in Localized NSCLC (ID 138)
- Event: WCLC 2015
- Type: Mini Oral
- Track: Treatment of Localized Disease - NSCLC
- Presentations: 1
MINI19.06 - External Validation of a Chinese Developed Survival Score in a Western Cohort Undergoing Surgery for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (ID 2226)
16:45 - 18:15 | Author(s): L. Azcarate
Currently adjuvant chemotherapy is not recommended for patients with completely resected stage I lung cancer. The ability to sub-stratify survival within stage I is an important consideration as it is assumed that survival is heterogeneous within this sub-group. Liang et al recently published a Chinese multi-institutional logistic regression derived model to predict post-operative survival in over 5000 patients undergoing lung cancer surgery for all stages. The aim of our study is external validation of their published nomogram in a British cohort focusing on stages IA and IB to determine applicability in selection of adjuvant chemotherapy within stage I.
We retrospectively analysed data from a prospectively collected database from our institutions. Patient variables were extracted and the score individually calculated. Receiver operative characteristics curve (ROC) was calculated and compared with the original derivation cohort and the discriminatory ability was further quantified using survival plots by splitting our (external) validation cohort into three tertiles and Kaplan Meier plots were constructed and individual curves tested using Cox regression analysis on Stata 13 and R 3.1.2 respectively.
From April 2007 to February 2015 a total of 1442 patients underwent surgery for primary lung cancer at our institution. We excluded 118 patients with carcinoid tumours (not in the original Chinese development set) and 86 patients without complete lymph node assessment leaving 1238 patients for validation. For all patients from stage IA to IIB the mean (SD) score was 9.95 (4.2). The ROC score comparing patients who died versus those that remained alive was 0.62 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.67). This was lower than the 0.71 reported by the Chinese group when split into 1,3 and 5 year survival. When divided into prognostic score tertiles, survival discrimination remained evident for the entire cohort, as well as those for stage IA and IB alone. The P value comparing survival between the middle and highest score with baseline (low score) was P=0.031 and P=0.034 respectively. Figure 1. Survival discrimination within Stage I Figure 1
Our results of external validation suggested lower survival discrimination than reported by the original group, however discrimination between survival remained evident for stage I.
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